An internal report about the COVID-19 pandemic first disclosed to the public by the New York Times today projects a daily death count of approximately 3,000 by the beginning of June, up from the present daily total of roughly 1,800. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention denied direct responsibility for the model and the White House “disavowed” the projections, according to the Washington Post. The slides of the report bear the logos of the Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S Department of Homeland Security and mention two agencies within their purviews, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, respectively.
The new projections contrast sharply with those typically referenced by President Trump, who often draws from a University of Washington model, also known as the Institute of Health Metrics or IHME model. The IHME model, once endorsed by the CDC, is no longer listed on a cdc.gov webpage that features a roster of models produced by Columbia University, the Imperial College of London, and others. The IHME model has come under fire from high-profile epidemiologists for its high early projections and dramatic fluctuations, believed to be the result of an unorthodox methodology that does not account for regional nuances in the outcomes of restrictions policies.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-and-shouldnt-guide-us-policies-critics-say.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/draft-government-report-projecting-a-surge-of-covid-19-cases/2b35321d-3977-41f5-9a78-50da7cafbe06/?itid=lk_inline_manual_1