A team of researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Georgia Institute of Technology, Boston University School of Medicine, and Value Analytics Labs has developed a free, online tool that allows users to view the projected impacts of Covid-19 restriction policies. Billed as “a tool designed to help policymakers decide how to respond to the novel coronavirus,” the COVID-19 Simulator graphs outcomes such as incidence, prevalence, and cumulative deaths after users choose from three policy interventions (e. g., “minimal restrictions,” “current intervention,” and “lockdown”) and a time interval from 2 – 16 weeks. Users then select a second intervention/duration combination and are instantly provided with the corresponding graphical data for a time period beginning the coming Monday. Outcomes data are displayed through the month of August.
An example showing striking outcomes for Georgia was published on the website on April 24. For the interval of April 27-May 25, under a standard stay-at-home order, the model estimates an outcome of 23,400 deaths in the state by the end of August. If the stay-at-home order instead lasted until July 20, the projected death count reaches just 1,940. Governor Kemp has begun to reopen a variety of small businesses, medical facilities, and restaurants.
Sources: https://www.covid19sim.org/
https://www.covid19sim.org/images/infographs/onePage_Georgia_Final.pdf